ORLANDO, Fla. - General managers are fond of saying that sometimes the best trade is the one they didn’t make.
Somehow, that will not be the case with Justin Upton, currently the outfielder for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
In fact, trading for Upton is exactly the best kind of trade the Red Sox [team stats] could make, and for all the right reasons.
The Sox returned home last night understanding that they have the opportunity to make the kind of blockbuster deal that the franchise needs not only to shake up a listless fan base and sagging television ratings but one that also happens to be about as solid of a baseball decision that can be made.
When principal owner John Henry left the owners and general managers meetings the day after a long late-night meeting with Theo Epstein, Larry Lucchino and Tom Werner, he said, “There’s a lot going on, as to whether or not it will turn into anything actual is hard to say.”
It may be harder to predict what the Red Sox are going to do than project the career of the 23-year-old Upton. the Sox have nothing like him in their system and in all of baseball there are very few who have produced like Upton has at such an early age. his 2009 season - 26 home runs, 86 RBI, 20 stolen bases, .300 batting average, .366 on-base percentage, .532 slugging percentage, .899 OPS - was very good but to do it as a 21-year-old is more than a glimpse of an outsized talent not even near the peak of his abilities.
The hangup, of course, is surrendering enough talent to satisfy the Diamondbacks, who are going to be hearing from at least a dozen other teams, one named the Yankees, about what they can do to re-stock Arizona’s minor league system and major league roster by trading for Upton.
Most of the early chatter involving the Sox and Diamondbacks is that Arizona will be looking for a handful of talent, with at least two or three from the major league roster. Based on early indications, Jacoby Ellsbury [stats] and Daniel Bard would be two key parts of any Upton deal.
Bard is the closer of the future and Ellsbury has a ton of talent, but after everyone takes a breath, think instead what life would be with Upton. the Sox’ offensive core consists of Kevin Youkilis [stats], Dustin Pedroia [stats] and Ellsbury. after that, there are more question marks than answers. J.D. Drew [stats] is gone after this coming year, the same with Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron and probably David Ortiz [stats].
Shortstop Jose Iglesias, first baseman Anthony Rizzo and outfielder Ryan Kalish are the three top positional prospects in the system. Kalish is just seven months younger than Upton, and Rizzo and Iglesias are a couple of years younger.
Maybe Kalish would have to go in an Upton deal as well, it wouldn’t be surprising, but inject Upton into the heart of the current Red Sox lineup, and you win.
Upton is not perfect. he strikes out too often and had a shoulder problem last year that probably explained his drop in production (.273 avg., 17 HR, 69 RBI) from 2009. if Upton does not ever improve his contact rate, he could top out as a very good but not great outfielder. It’s a crapshoot, of course, but most would take the chance that Upton rises to the Reggie Jackson-Ken Griffey Jr. level he could reach.
If you’re the Red Sox, you also have a better understanding of just how realistic a shot the team has in signing any of the big four - Adrian Beltre, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth and Victor Martinez - this winter.
Guaranteed - if the Sox decide not to deal for Upton, another team will.
Guaranteed - if the Sox deal for Upton plus sign one of the big four or make another addition they know they can make, then they win this deal as much as the Diamondbacks.
For all the right reasons, the Red Sox need to make the trade that brings Upton to Boston.
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